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Over the last two years, U.S. banks and government agencies have enjoyed a notable respite from malicious Iranian cyber activity. The timing of this drop-off happens to coincide with the signing of the nuclear deal with Iran in 2015. Now with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening to walk away from the nuclear deal, cybersecurity experts say it is likely Iran could resume its attacks against Western targets should Trump actually follow through with his threat.
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The author argues the power and value of U.S. trade relations with its allies will compel them to cooperate with U.S. unilateral sanctions or work to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal.
[ More ]After a contentious meeting with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson this week, President Donald Trump instructed a group of trusted White House staffers to make the potential case for withholding certification of Iran at the next 90-day review of the nuclear deal. The goal was to give Trump what he felt the State Department had failed to do: the option to declare that Tehran was not in compliance with the contentious agreement.
[ More ]The Trump White House is poised to ratchet up existing sanctions against Iran and is weighing a much stricter interpretation of the nuclear agreement between Tehran and major world powers.
[ More ]The IAEA has more tools than ever to ensure that Iran is living up to its promises, but there’s a catch: Iran gets to approve which technologies the IAEA can use. The deal includes a provision that the IAEA be allowed to use “modern technologies,” but as with agency inspections in other countries, Iran and the agency will have to work out exactly what technology is deployed where.
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Joel S. Wit argues that a key lesson from the 1994 Agreed Framework with North Korea is that implementation of nuclear agreements such as the nuclear deal with Iran requires careful attention to detail, and a plan for resolving disuptes from both sides to prevent disagreements from collapsing the nuclear deal.
[ More ]The accord reached in Vienna last month has led many Iranians to believe that better times are ahead for their country’s economy, which has long been plagued by high inflation and unemployment. An opinion poll found that 57 percent of Iranians support the accord, although 63 percent mistakenly believe that it will result in the eventual lifting of all U.S. sanctions targeting Iran.
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The author argues that Iran is unlikely to dramatically increase its support for terrorism as it fears attribution and retaliation from Western governments, leaving a more manageable threat for U.S. and its Gulf allies.
[ More ]Diplomats from U.S. allies including Germany, England, France, and even Russian and China met with Democratic senators to convince them not to reject the nuclear deal with Iran.
[ More ]Stephen M. Walt argues that there is a risk that the U.S. could squander its opportunity to resolve the hostile relationship with Iran if opponents of the Iran deal continue their attacks after the deal passes.
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