Nuclear Iran would cause rapid collapse of Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and a nuclear arms race in the Middle East
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Achieving nuclear capability would make the Islamic Republic not only a regional threat, but also an international one. A nuclear Islamic Republic would, in effect, end the Non-Proliferation Treaty security regime. Many, if not most, regional states might feel compelled to develop their own indigenous nuclear capability or accept coverage from another state’s nuclear umbrella. Given historical instability in the region, the prospects of a nuclear Middle East—possibly including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey—are worrying enough, even before the proliferation cascade continues across North Africa and into Southern Europe. Iran’s continued nuclear development also endangers global non-proliferation by exposing weaknesses in the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the inability or unwillingness of the international community to enforce the Non-Proliferation Treaty or United Nations resolutions on non-proliferation.
The nonproliferation regime is under a lot of stress after 40+ years of attempting to prevent a wave of nuclear proliferation. With the international community unable to prevent North Korea from successfully obtaining a nuclear weapon, some experts are concerned that if Iran goes nuclear, it would push the regime over the tipping point.