Should be Concerned about Loss of Control (A.Q. Kahn Scenario) in Nuclear Iran
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SAGAN: The third problem is the loss of control and the potential that someone inside a nuclear state could give nuclear weapons to another non-nuclear state.Professor Waltz argues that we do not need to wonder whether new nuclear states will take good care of the nuclear weapons-they have every incentive to do so."They," an abstract entity called the state, may have the incentive to do so. But other actors inside these states may not have similar incentives.Look at the history of the A.Q. Kahn nuclear network in Pakistan. With help from others, a senior scientist, acting in his own interest and greed, began to sell bomb design and centrifuge technology. He sold the actual centrifuges and bomb design to Libya, and he offered them to Iraq in 1991, though Saddam Hussein turned down the offer, thinking it was a CIA ploy. A.Q. Khan helped initiate the Iranian nuclear program in 1987, selling them centrifuges and other technologies. He sold similar items to North Korea.Using the Pakistan analogy instead of the Cold War analogy, the effects of a nuclear Iran are correctly seen as very dangerous.
One empirical reason to be concerned about new nuclear nations is the instability and risk of unauthorized access to the nuclear arsenals that usually occurs while the nation develops its security and deterrence protocols. Iran already has a history of command and control lapses which should be a warning sign for how they would handle nuclear weapons.