Iran's Power in Context
Iran's Power in Context ." Survival. Vol. 51, No. 1 (February-March 2009): 165-190. [ More (2 quotes) ]
"Quicktabs: Citation
Iran will not collapse because of decreased revenues; it survived a similar situation in the 1980s and will, no doubt, try to make a virtue out of necessity by appealing to the revolutionary spirit while blaming sanctions and foreign enemies for any difficulties. It is likely, however, that Ahmadinejad's policies of confronting the international community, supporting resistance forces, throwing money at problems against specialist advice and making populist promises of improved living standards will face increased domestic criticism. The opportunity costs of funding insurgents and militias may become more controversial. After all, by all accounts the Iranian street is no fan of these policies. Some believe that economic constraints will hamper Iran's regional ambitions. Ahmadinejad's economic and political model may be discredited, especially if a new round of meaningful sanctions is imposed in the first half of 2009. At the very least, economic constraints should encourage a domestic debate about what kind of regional role Iran should play, and at what cost.
Iran's Power in Context ." Survival. Vol. 51, No. 1 (February-March 2009): 165-190. [ More (2 quotes) ]
"Iran's economic model is a clear failure in comparison to that of its smaller southern neighbours, whence large numbers of Iranian entrepreneurs have fled. Unable to diversify its economy or invest in its energy infrastructure, Iran is storing up trouble for itself. With oil prices sliding Tehran has to rely on Saudi Arabia for cuts in production to protect it against further price deterioration and associated political repercussions. The damaging effects of corruption, subsidies, a bloated government and the operations of bonyads (unaccountable 'foundations' that dominate the non-petroleum sectors) have caused the country to haemorrhage talent abroad.
Iran's Power in Context ." Survival. Vol. 51, No. 1 (February-March 2009): 165-190. [ More (2 quotes) ]
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