Nuclear deal would open up opportunities to work with Iran on other issues in the region
Successful completion of the nuclear deal would open up opportunities for the U.S. and Iran to cooperate more openly on issues that affect both countries. Specifically, Iran is already a de facto ally against ISIS as well as both al-Qaeda and the Taliban and there are multiple opportunities for the U.S. to cooperate with Iran to address these extremist threats. Additionally, Iran has interests in Afghanistan and Iraq and the U.S. would benefit from cooperating with Iran to help stabilize these countries.
Demanding a regional Iranian surrender would risk the nuclear talks. In contrast, resolving the nuclear issue would improve the chances of addressing other disputes. A more prosperous Iran would naturally have more regional influence and important differences would remain. But there are important areas for U.S.-Iran cooperation. The two governments could work together in Afghanistan and anti-piracy operations. Iran is a de facto ally against the Islamic State (and before that against both al-Qaeda and the Taliban). Further improvements in relations with Washington could draw Iran away from some of its more radical attachments. Said Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council: after signing a nuclear agreement the two nations “can behave in a way that they do not use their energy against each other."
Beyond the negative repercussions of a collapse of the talks, the United States and Iran will both bypass a number of historic opportunities. The United States and Iran may not support the same sides or pursue the same long-term objectives in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, but there is an opportunity for some limited cooperation against the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.With the collapse of the talks whatever prospect that might exist for tacit collaboration would rapidly dissipate, hurting both the United States and Iran.
Let's be clear: air power alone will not defeat the Islamic State. We cannot defeat the Islamic State, President Bashar al-Assad's forces in Syria, and Iran all at the same time.Some level of cooperation with Iran, however undeclared, however indirect, and carried out exclusively through back-channels will be necessary. A nuclear agreement would set a favorable context for this. As for Iran's nefarious influence on Iraq that many use as an excuse against cooperation with Tehran to defeat the Islamic State, that reality has obtained ever since the American-led 2003 invasion: for reasons of geographical proximity and history, an Iraq partly subjugated by Iran is an inescapable reality until the Iranian regime itself changes. It was only Saddam Hussein's suffocating, totalitarian rule in Baghdad that kept Iran out of there.
There will also be missed opportunities in Afghanistan, where Iran has a long history of opposing the Taliban, and thus can be employed to ease the withdrawal of U. S. forces there.Indeed, in the aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan – in probably the closest cooperation the United States and Iran have pursued since the Islamic revolution – Iran played a critical role in supporting the agreement that led to the formation of a new Afghan government. In the aftermath of a nuclear agreement, similar cooperation should be a high priority in the service of protecting our troops.
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Another potential area of cooperation is counter- piracy. Both the United States and Iran have an interest in ensuring the free flow of energy resources and commerce from the Middle East to Asia, Africa and across the globe. Iran’s past participation in international counter-piracy efforts has not raised concerns from regional partners, and those efforts have provided an opportunity for Iran to play a constructive role in a broad coalition- based effort in the region of the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf of Aden.18 Indeed, the counter-piracy campaign is one area of Iranian security policy where regime hardliners have empowered the regular Iranian navy.19 The U.S. Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Jonathan Greenert, complimented the regular Iranian navy as “professional, courteous, and good mariners” for its active participation in anti-piracy patrols in 2012.20
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On several other issues that affect the future sta- bility of Afghanistan, the United States and Iran continue to pursue cooperation. These include containing the Taliban and promoting the general stability of Afghanistan by preventing return to a general state of civil war in the country.26 Iran has joined the United States and other members of the international community in praising the 2014 formation of the Afghan unity government of President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and Chief Executive Officer Abdullah Abdullah.27 In spite of Iran’s continued objection to the NATO SOFA with the Afghan government, it may see benefits from a small residual NATO force in support of Afghan security forces, which can help stabilize a conflict that has sent two million Afghan refugees into Iran.28
Preventing the flow of heroin and other narcotics from Afghanistan into Iran and onto the global market is another potential area of cooperation. One of the most damaging contemporary social problems in Iran is addiction to opiates, particu- larly heroin, most of which enters the country from Afghanistan. Iran’s moderate factions have generally taken the lead on their country’s anti-narcotics policy, an issue on which they are supported by the hardline factions close to the Supreme Leader.30
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Of all the issues presented here, Syria will pose the greatest challenge for cooperation. There are potentially some areas of overlapping interests, but on others, Iran and the United States have been on opposing sides for years. Before the emergence of ISIS, Syria represented a fairly clear-cut proxy war between Iran (with the active support of Russia) and its client Assad regime on one side, and on the other, the Sunni Gulf partners of the United States. The emergence of ISIS – a threat to the interests of all parties – represents an opportunity for de- escalation and, potentially, cooperation. Together, both sides could push toward an end to the conflict by forcing a concerted pause in fighting, establish- ing local ceasefires and governance and then rolling those ceasefires into a political transition.39
Iran could have an interest in achieving that level of cooperation due to the high cost of supporting the Assad regime. Iran has sent large amounts of money and significant numbers of its fighters, and has encouraged its regional proxies, including Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, to take up the fight in Syria. Those efforts have consumed vast resources at a time when sanctions have hit hard on Iran’s domestic economy, and have also cost Iran dearly in terms of regional influence. The increas- ingly sectarian complexion of regional conflicts has undermined Iran’s pan-Islamic bid for influence across the Middle East, including until recently splitting Hamas from Iran’s camp.40 Syria’s civil war has also placed a costly burden on the IRGC and the Quds Force, which have been deployed to reinforce the Assad regime militarily by build- ing a nation-wide National Defense Force militia network modeled after the IRGC’s Basij paramilitary force.41 At least six senior Quds Force officers and as many as 60 operatives have reportedly been killed in the Syrian conflict to date.42
The Levant will likely be in a state of violent and chaotic conflict for decades, much as Afghanistan has been since the late 1970s. The more the United States and Iran coordinate with each other, the less chance there is that America will have to put additional boots on the ground in the Middle East. If the United States is serious about the pivot to Asia, its objective should be to get regional powers, including Iran, to carry the burden of stabilizing Syria and Iraq.
There is more. A future, relatively congenial Iran might be less inclined to make trouble through its Hezbollah and Hamas allies in southern Lebanon and Gaza. It might help secure al-Qaeda-infected Yemen, via Iranian-backed Houthi tribesmen (the Houthi are Zaidi Shiites who have been overrunning Yemeni territory). It could even counteract future Chinese influence in the Persian Gulf: Already, Iran and India have joined forces to develop the Arabian Sea port of Chabahar in Iranian Baluchistan. This port could one day compete against the nearby port of Gwadar, which China and Pakistan are working jointly to further develop. An American-Iranian understanding could also ensure the overall security of the Gulf sheikhdoms—an Iran in dialogue with America is an Iran less likely to be militarily aggressive toward its neighbors. And a more friendly Iran might conceivably help balance against Russia’s influence in the Transcaucasus, where Vladimir Putin has made a satellite out of Armenia, put troops near a weakened Georgia, and pressured energy-rich Azerbaijan into a closer relationship.
Despite its slowdown in growth, the Indo-Pacific region remains the heartland of the world economy, home to the most important sea lines of communication and many economic powerhouses, some of which (like Japan and South Korea) are treaty allies of the United States, and others of which (like Vietnam and Malaysia) are consequential de facto allies. Since Obama’s first term, his administration has rightly been determined to focus more on Asia, in order to both defend U.S. allies against Chinese naval expansion and protect global trade. Of course, turmoil in the Middle East has interfered. But the increasingly tense military standoff in maritime Asia demands that the United States find a way, at least over time, to reduce its granular involvement in the conflicts of the Middle East.
There is no more efficient way to do this than to enter into a strategic understanding with Iran. Like the understanding that the United States forged with China in 1972, this would be less a matter of treaty language than of mutual respect and of expectations quietly agreed to by leaders on both sides.
The United States needs Shia Iran to fight the extremist Sunnis of the Islamic State, and at the same time to pressure the Shia government in Baghdad to moderate its posture toward the Sunnis, in the name of internal stability in Iraq. Should the unhelpful Islamic government in Turkey grow more intractable, Iran could also prove helpful in balancing against it. (After all, Iran and Turkey have uneasily coexisted and offset each other since the Safavid-Ottoman War of the early 17th century.) In addition, Iran and the United States could potentially work in tandem in Syria to preserve the political power of the country’s ruling Alawites—the Alawite sect being an offshoot of Shia Islam—even as they work together to remove President Bashar al-Assad from power. Furthermore, Iran could help steady neighboring Afghanistan in the wake of an American troop withdrawal, by serving as a buffer against pro-Taliban Pakistani and Saudi elements. The American military has already quietly encouraged Iranian involvement there.
All of this would be in Iran’s interests, and in America’s too. And while Iran might do some of these things on its own, doing them in coordination with America would measurably help stabilize the greater Middle East.
Fourth, ISIS and other jihadist groups threaten both Iran and the U.S. Yet coordination and collaboration between the two against these violent terrorist organizations has been minimal because neither side has the political ability to expand coordination until the nuclear dispute has been settled first.
A well-placed Iranian source told me recently that in a post-deal environment, Iran is ready to put in 40,000-60,000 ground troops to eliminate ISIS over the next three years. Ideally, the U.S. would provide air support, he explained. The source made clear the commitment would not be a quid pro quo to get a nuclear deal.
If true, this would be the first commitment of ground troops by any state in the region to take on ISIS. But even short of this, Iran has already provided more support in the fight against ISIS thanany of America's actual allies.
There is near-consensus that airstrikes alone will not defeat ISIS. Ground troops are needed, but who will provide them? The American public is certainly not in the mood for putting more troops on the ground in Iraq. The Iraqi army has proven desperately inadequate. The nuclear deal may help square this circle.
MYTH: 3) Iran will be even more emboldened in the region after a deal is signed.
On the contrary. Deal or no deal, Iran has always been a regional power, and it always will be. Instead, Washington should be asking itself whether Tehran's power projection calculations can be affected in such a way that Iranian and American power peacefully co-exist. Recent history shows that it is possible - if political leaders are willing to take risks for peace. In 2001 and 2003, Iranian officials tried to realign relations with the U.S. after its invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Geopolitical realities changed, and Iran sought to change with them. The Bush administration rebuffed Tehran's overtures. The rest is history.
In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, geopolitical realities have once again changed, and Iranian strategy has changed accordingly. Ending the nuclear impasse is only the tip of the iceberg. Surrounded by a region ablaze, Iran has offered viable plans for Syria, Yemen, and the fight against violent extremism. It has repeatedly reached out to Western and regional actors seeking détente. Today, its foreign policy is premised on the reality that durable solutions require the buy-in of every actor with the capacity to wreck the solution. Iran will continue challenging foreign power when interests diverge, but it is more likely to do so with diplomats rather than bombs or bullets.
Finally, there are also opportunity costs of a no-deal outcome. It is difficult to know whether a deal will moderate Iran’s regional behavior or improve U.S.–Iranian relations and cooperation on issues of common concern, such as countering Sunni extremist forces in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are probably more constraints on such radical transformations of U.S.–Iranian relations than some pro-deal advocates may acknowledge. Regional neighbors have good reason to worry that Iran’s links to destabilizing groups throughout the region will continue.
But what is certain is that the absence of a deal will foreclose possibilities for even limited cooperation and the possibility of moderating Iran’s behavior over time. As U.S. President Barack Obama noted in a discussion of his administration’s revision of Cuba policy, current policies of pressure and isolation haven’t worked, so logic dictates a new approach. The same can be said of the United States’ Iran policy: The policies of isolating and punishing Iran—which has spanned Democratic and Republican administrations—have not produced more moderate Iranian behavior at home, in the region, or across the globe. It might be time to test whether engagement with a nuclear-constrained Iran can produce better results.
The author warns that valuable civil society programs and diplomatic exchanges between the U.S. and Iran are at risk if the Trump administration undermines the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
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Whether a nuclear deal with Iran will pave the way for a new opening on peace talks in Syria remains to be seen. Increasingly, though, world leaders are explicitly linking the two, with the European Union’s top diplomat, Federica Mogherini, suggesting last week that a nuclear agreement could spur Tehran to play “a major but positive role in Syria.
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